Iindaba

Kutshanje, iinkcukacha zezoqoqosho eUnited States, kuquka ingqesho nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ziye zehla. Ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyehla ngokukhawuleza, kunokukhawulezisa inkqubo yokunciphisa izinga lenzala. Kusekho i-gap phakathi kokulindela kweemarike kunye nokuqala kokunciphisa izinga lenzala, kodwa ukuvela kweziganeko ezihambelanayo kunokukhuthaza ukulungiswa komgaqo-nkqubo yi-Federal Reserve.
Uhlalutyo lwexabiso legolide kunye nobhedu
Kwinqanaba elikhulu, uSihlalo weFederal Reserve uPowell uthe amazinga enzala omgaqo-nkqubo weFed “angene kuluhlu oluthintelweyo,” kwaye amaxabiso egolide aphesheya kwakhona asondele kwimbali ephezulu. Abarhwebi bakholelwa ukuba intetho kaPowell yayinobulali, kwaye ukubheja kwezinga lenzala ngo-2024 akuzange kucinezelwe. Imveliso yeebhondi ze-US Treasury Bond kunye nedola yaseMelika ziye zaphinda zehla, nto leyo eqhuba amaxabiso egolide nesilivere kumazwe ngamazwe. Idatha ephantsi yokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiinyanga ezininzi ibangele abatyali-mali ukuba bacinge ukuba i-Federal Reserve iya kunciphisa inzala ngoMeyi 2024 okanye nangaphambili.
Ekuqaleni kukaDisemba ka-2023, uShenyin Wanguo Futures wabhengeza ukuba iintetho zamagosa eFederal Reserve aziphumelelanga ukunqanda ulindelo lwemarike yokunciphisa, kwaye imarike yaqala ukubheja kwireyithi yokucuthwa kwangoko ngoMatshi ka-2024, okubangela ukuba amaxabiso egolide aphesheya afikelele kwindawo entsha. Kodwa ngokuqwalasela ukuba nethemba eligqithisileyo malunga namaxabiso aphantsi, kubekho uhlengahlengiso olulandelayo kunye nokwehla. Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yedatha yezoqoqosho ebuthathaka e-United States kunye nemilinganiselo yebhondi yedola yaseMelika ebuthathaka, imarike iphakamise ulindelo lokuba i-Federal Reserve igqibe ukunyuswa kwenzala kwaye inokunciphisa izinga lenzala ngaphambi kweshedyuli, ukuqhuba amaxabiso egolide kunye nesilivere kumazwe ngamazwe ukuba aqhubeke qinisa. Njengoko umjikelo wokunyuswa kwenzala ufikelela esiphelweni, idatha yezoqoqosho yase-US iya isiba buthathaka, ungquzulwano lwelizwe jikelele lwezopolitiko lubakho rhoqo, kwaye iziko eliguquguqukayo lamaxabiso esinyithi axabisekileyo liyenyuka.
Kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso legolide lamazwe ngamazwe liza kuphula iirekhodi zembali kwi-2024, eqhutywe kubuthathaka kwe-index ye-dollar yase-US kunye nokulindela ukuhla kwexabiso lenzala yi-Federal Reserve, kunye ne-geopolitical factor. Kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso legolide lamazwe ngamazwe lihlale lingaphezulu kweedola ezingama-2000 nge-ounce nganye, ngokweengcali zobuchule bempahla e-ING.
Ngaphandle kokuhla kweentlawulo zokucwangcisa, imveliso yobhedu yasekhaya iyaqhubeka ikhula ngokukhawuleza. Imfuno esezantsi yomlambo e-China izinzile kwaye iphucula, kunye nokufakelwa kwe-photovoltaic eqhuba ukukhula okuphezulu kwi-investment yombane, ukuthengiswa kakuhle kwe-air conditioning kunye nokuqhuba ukukhula kwemveliso. Ukunyuka kwezinga lokungena kwamandla amatsha kulindeleke ukuba kudibanise imfuno yobhedu kushishino lwezixhobo zothutho. Imakethi ilindele ukuba ixesha lokucuthwa kwenzala ye-Federal Reserve ngo-2024 linokulibaziseka kwaye uluhlu lwempahla lunokunyuka ngokukhawuleza, olunokuthi lukhokhelele kubuthathaka bexeshana elifutshane kumaxabiso obhedu kunye nokuguquguquka koluhlu lulonke. UGoldman Sachs uthe kwimbonakalo yayo yentsimbi ka-2024 ukuba amaxabiso obhedu aphesheya kulindeleke ukuba adlule kwi-1000 yeedola ngetoni nganye.

Izizathu zamaxabiso aphezulu ngokwembali
Ukususela ekuqaleni kukaDisemba 2023, amaxabiso egolide kumazwe ngamazwe anyuke nge-12%, ngelixa amaxabiso asekhaya enyuke nge-16%, edlula imbuyekezo phantse kuzo zonke iindidi eziphambili zee-asethi zasekhaya. Ukongeza, ngenxa yorhwebo oluyimpumelelo lweendlela ezintsha zegolide, iimveliso zegolide ezintsha zithandwa kakhulu ngabathengi basekhaya, ngakumbi isizukulwana esitsha sobuhle abathanda abafazi abancinci. Ke siyintoni isizathu sokuba igolide yakudala iphinde ikhukuliswe kwaye izele ngamandla?
Enye kukuba igolide bubutyebi obungunaphakade. Iimali zamazwe ahlukeneyo kwihlabathi kunye nobutyebi bemali kwimbali azibaleki, kwaye ukunyuka kunye nokuwa kwazo kuyakhawuleza. Kwimbali ende yendaleko yemali, oonokrwece, isilika, igolide, isilivere, ubhedu, intsimbi, nezinye izinto zonke ziye zasetyenziswa njengempahla yemali. Amaza akhukulise isanti, kuphela ukubona igolide yokwenene. Igolide kuphela eye yamelana nobhaptizo lwexesha, imirhumo, ubuhlanga kunye nenkcubeko, yaba bubutyebi obuvunyiweyo kwihlabathi liphela. Igolide ye-pre Qin yaseTshayina kunye neGrisi yamandulo kunye neRoma iseyigolide unanamhla.
Okwesibini kukwandisa imarike yokusetyenziswa kwegolide ngetekhnoloji entsha. Ngaphambili, inkqubo yokuvelisa iimveliso zegolide yayilula, kwaye ukwamkelwa kwabasetyhini abaselula kwakuphantsi. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ngenxa yenkqubela phambili yetekhnoloji yokucubungula, igolide ye-3D kunye ne-5D, igolide ye-5G, igolide yakudala, igolide eqinile, i-enamel yegolide, inlay yegolide, igolide etyhidiweyo kunye nezinye iimveliso ezintsha ziyakhazimla, zisefashonini kwaye zinzima, zikhokelela kwifashoni yelizwe. I-China-Chic, kwaye ithandwa kakhulu luluntu.
Eyesithathu kukulima idayimani ukuncedisa ekusetyenzisweni kwegolide. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, iidayimani ezilinywe ngokwenziwa ziye zaxhamla kwinkqubela phambili yezobuchwepheshe kwaye ziye zahamba ngokukhawuleza ukuya kurhwebo, okubangele ukuhla ngokukhawuleza kwamaxabiso okuthengisa kunye nefuthe elibi kwinkqubo yexabiso ledayimani yendalo. Nangona ukhuphiswano phakathi kweedayimani zokwenziwa kunye needayimani zendalo kusenzima ukwahlula, lukhokelela ngokungenanjongo kubathengi abaninzi abangathengi iidayimani zokwenziwa okanye iidayimani zendalo, kodwa endaweni yoko bathenge iimveliso zegolide zobuchwephesha.
Okwesine kukugqithiswa kwemali yehlabathi, ukwanda kwamatyala, ukugqamisa ukulondolozwa kwexabiso kunye neempawu zokuxabisa zegolide. Isiphumo sokugqithiswa kwemali emandla kukunyuka kwamaxabiso okumandla kunye nokwehla okumandla kumandla okuthenga emali. Uphononongo olwenziwe ngumphengululi wangaphandle uFrancisco Garcia Parames lubonisa ukuba kwiminyaka eyi-90 edlulileyo, amandla okuthenga e-dollar yase-US aye ahla ngokuqhubekayo, kunye neesenti ze-4 kuphela ezisele kwi-dollar eyi-1 kwi-1913 ukuya kwi-2003, ukuhla okuqhelekileyo ngonyaka kwe-3.64%. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, amandla okuthenga igolide azinzile yaye abonisa ukunyuka okunyukayo kwiminyaka yakutshanje. Kule minyaka ingama-30 idlulileyo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso egolide enziwe kwiidola zaseMelika kuye kwangqanyaniswa nesantya sokugqithiswa kwemali kuqoqosho oluphuhlileyo, nto leyo ethetha ukuba igolide igqithise ukugqithiswa kweemali zase-US.
Okwesihlanu, iibhanki ezingoovimba behlabathi zonyusa uvimba wazo wegolide. Ukunyuka okanye ukuncipha koovimba begolide ziibhanki ezingoovimba behlabathi kunempembelelo enkulu kubonelelo kunye nobudlelwane bemfuno kwimarike yegolide. Emva kwentlekele yezemali yamazwe ngamazwe ka-2008, iibhanki ezingoovimba kwihlabathi jikelele ziye zandisa igolide yazo. Ukusukela kwikota yesithathu ka-2023, iibhanki ezingoovimba behlabathi zifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu lembali kugcino lwegolide. Nangona kunjalo, umlinganiselo wegolide koovimba botshintshiselwano lwangaphandle lwaseTshayina usephantsi ngokwentelekiso. Ezinye iibhanki ezingoovimba ezinokonyuka okubalulekileyo ekugcinweni zibandakanya iSingapore, iPoland, iIndiya, uMbindi Mpuma, kunye neminye imimandla.