Iindaba

Kutshanje, idatha yezoqoqosho eMelika, kuquka ingqesho kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, iye yehla. Ukuba ukwehla kwamaxabiso kuyakhawuleza, kunokukhawulezisa inkqubo yokunciphisa inzala. Kusekho umsantsa phakathi kolindelo lwemarike kunye nokuqala kokunciphisa inzala, kodwa ukwenzeka kweziganeko ezinxulumene noko kunokukhuthaza uhlengahlengiso lwemigaqo-nkqubo yiFederal Reserve.
Uhlalutyo lwamaxabiso egolide nobhedu
Kwinqanaba elikhulu, uSihlalo weFederal Reserve uPowell uthe amazinga enzala omgaqo-nkqubo weFed "angene kuluhlu olunemida," kwaye amaxabiso egolide aphesheya aphinda asondela kwinqanaba eliphezulu lembali. Abarhwebi babekholelwa ukuba intetho kaPowell yayithambile, kwaye ukubheja kokunciphisa inzala ngo-2024 akuzange kuncitshiswe. Inzuzo yeebhondi zebhondi ze-US Treasury kunye nedola yaseMelika yehle ngakumbi, nto leyo eqhubela phambili ukunyuka kwamaxabiso egolide nesilivere aphesheya. Idatha ephantsi yokunyuka kwamaxabiso kangangeenyanga ezininzi ikhokelele abatyali-mali ukuba bacinge ukuba iFederal Reserve iza kunciphisa inzala ngoMeyi 2024 okanye nangaphambi koko.
Ekuqaleni kukaDisemba ka-2023, iShenyin Wanguo Futures yabhengeza ukuba iintetho zamagosa eFederal Reserve azizange zikwazi ukunciphisa ulindelo lwemarike lokunciphisa, kwaye imarike yaqala ukubheja ekunciphiseni ireyithi kwangoko ngoMatshi ka-2024, nto leyo eyabangela ukuba amaxabiso egolide aphesheya afikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu. Kodwa xa ucinga ngokuba nethemba eligqithisileyo malunga namaxabiso aphantsi, kubekho utshintsho nokwehla okulandelayo. Ngokuchasene nedatha yezoqoqosho ebuthathaka eMelika kunye namazinga ebhondi edola yaseMelika abuthathaka, imarike inyuse ulindelo lokuba iFederal Reserve igqibe ukunyuka kwereyithi yenzala kwaye inokunciphisa amazinga enzala ngaphambi kwexesha elicwangcisiweyo, nto leyo eqhuba amaxabiso egolide nesilivere aphesheya ukuba aqhubeke nokuqina. Njengoko umjikelo wokunyuka kwereyithi yenzala ufikelela esiphelweni, idatha yezoqoqosho yase-US iyancipha kancinci kancinci, iingxabano ze-geopolitical zehlabathi zenzeka rhoqo, kwaye iziko lokuguquguquka kwamaxabiso esinyithi esixabisekileyo liyakhula.
Kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso legolide lehlabathi liphela liphule iirekhodi zembali ngo-2024, liqhutywa kukuncipha kwesalathisi sedola yaseMelika kunye nolindelo lokuncitshiswa kwenzala yiFederal Reserve, kunye nezinto zezopolitiko. Kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso legolide lehlabathi liphela lihlale lingaphezulu kwe-$2000 nge-ounce, ngokutsho kweengcali zezicwangciso zeempahla kwi-ING.
Nangona kukho ukwehla kweendleko zokucubungula umxube wezinto ezixineneyo, imveliso yobhedu lwasekhaya iyaqhubeka nokukhula ngokukhawuleza. Imfuno iyonke esezantsi eTshayina izinzile kwaye iyaphucuka, kunye nokufakelwa kwe-photovoltaic okuqhuba ukukhula okuphezulu kotyalo-mali lombane, ukuthengiswa okuhle kwe-air conditioning kunye nokukhula kwemveliso. Ukwanda kwesantya sokungena kwamandla amatsha kulindeleke ukuba kudibanise imfuno yobhedu kushishino lwezixhobo zothutho. Imarike ilindele ukuba ixesha lokuncitshiswa kwenzala yeFederal Reserve ngo-2024 linokulibaziseka kwaye iimpahla zinokunyuka ngokukhawuleza, nto leyo enokubangela ubuthathaka bexesha elifutshane kumaxabiso obhedu kunye nokuguquguquka koluhlu ngokubanzi. IGoldman Sachs yathi kwimbono yayo yesinyithi ka-2024 ukuba amaxabiso obhedu lwamazwe ngamazwe kulindeleke ukuba adlule kwi-$10000 ngetoni.

Izizathu Zamaxabiso Aphezulu Embalini
Ukususela ekuqaleni kukaDisemba ka-2023, amaxabiso egolide yamazwe ngamazwe anyuke nge-12%, ngelixa amaxabiso asekhaya enyuke nge-16%, edlula imbuyekezo phantse kuzo zonke iindidi ezinkulu zempahla yasekhaya. Ukongeza, ngenxa yokuthengiswa ngempumelelo kweendlela ezintsha zegolide, iimveliso ezintsha zegolide ziyathandwa ngakumbi ngabathengi basekhaya, ingakumbi isizukulwana esitsha sabasetyhini abathanda ubuhle. Ngoko ke yintoni isizathu sokuba igolide yakudala iphinde ihlanjwe kwaye izaliswe bubomi?
Enye kukuba igolide bubutyebi obungunaphakade. Iimali zamazwe ahlukeneyo kwihlabathi liphela kunye nobutyebi bemali kwimbali azinakubalwa, kwaye ukunyuka nokuwa kwazo kuyaphela. Kwimbali ende yokuguquka kwemali, amaqokobhe, isilika, igolide, isilivere, ubhedu, isinyithi, nezinye izinto zonke zisebenze njengezinto zemali. Amaza ahlamba isanti, aze abone igolide yokwenyani. Yigolide kuphela eye yamelana nobhaptizo lwexesha, amakhosi, ubuhlanga, kunye nenkcubeko, yaba "bubutyebi bemali" obaziwayo kwihlabathi liphela. Igolide yaseTshayina yangaphambi kweQin kunye neGrisi yamandulo kunye neRoma iseyigolide nanamhlanje.
Okwesibini kukwandisa imakethi yokusetyenziswa kwegolide ngetekhnoloji entsha. Ngaphambili, inkqubo yokuvelisa iimveliso zegolide yayilula, kwaye ukwamkelwa kwabasetyhini abancinci kwakuphantsi. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ngenxa yenkqubela phambili yetekhnoloji yokucubungula, igolide ye-3D kunye ne-5D, igolide ye-5G, igolide yakudala, igolide eqinileyo, igolide ye-enamel, i-inlay yegolide, igolide egildiweyo kunye nezinye iimveliso ezintsha ziyamangalisa, zombini zifashini kwaye zinzima, zikhokela imfashini yesizwe iChina-Chic, kwaye zithandwa kakhulu luluntu.
Okwesithathu kukulima iidayimani ukunceda ekusetyenzisweni kwegolide. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, iidayimani ezikhuliswe ngokwenziwa ziye zazuza kwinkqubela phambili yetekhnoloji kwaye ziye zaya ngokukhawuleza ekuthengisweni, nto leyo ebangele ukwehla ngokukhawuleza kwamaxabiso okuthengisa kunye nempembelelo enkulu kwinkqubo yamaxabiso eedayimani zendalo. Nangona ukhuphiswano phakathi kweedayimani zokwenziwa kunye needayimani zendalo lusanzima ukuluhlula, lukhokelela ekubeni abathengi abaninzi bangazithengi iidayimani zokwenziwa okanye iidayimani zendalo, kodwa endaweni yoko bathenge iimveliso ezintsha zegolide ezenziwe ngezandla.
Eyesine kukwanda kakhulu kwemali yehlabathi, ukwanda kwamatyala, nto leyo egxininisa ukugcinwa kwexabiso kunye neempawu zoxabiso zegolide. Isiphumo sokwanda kakhulu kwemali kukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokwehla okukhulu kwamandla okuthenga kwemali. Uphononongo olwenziwe yingcali yezangaphandle uFrancisco Garcia Parames lubonisa ukuba kwiminyaka engama-90 edlulileyo, amandla okuthenga edola yaseMelika ebesoloko ehla, kusele iisenti ezi-4 kuphela ukusuka kwidola yaseMelika e-1 ngo-1913 ukuya ku-2003, ukwehla okuqhelekileyo konyaka kwe-3.64%. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, amandla okuthenga egolide azinzile kwaye abonise ukunyuka kwiminyaka yakutshanje. Kwiminyaka engama-30 edlulileyo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso egolide abizwa ngeedola zaseMelika kuye kwahambelana nesantya sokwanda kakhulu kwemali kumazwe aphuhlileyo, oko kuthetha ukuba igolide idlule kakhulu kunokwanda kakhulu kwemali yaseMelika.
Okwesihlanu, iibhanki eziphambili zehlabathi ziyandisa ukugcinwa kwazo kwegolide. Ukwanda okanye ukuncipha kokugcinwa kwegolide ziibhanki eziphambili zehlabathi kunempembelelo enkulu kubudlelwane bokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwimarike yegolide. Emva kwengxaki yezemali yamazwe ngamazwe ka-2008, iibhanki eziphambili kwihlabathi liphela ziye zandisa ukugcinwa kwazo kwegolide. Ukusukela kwikota yesithathu ka-2023, iibhanki eziphambili zehlabathi zifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwimbali yokugcinwa kwazo kwegolide. Nangona kunjalo, umlinganiselo wegolide kwiindawo zotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle zaseTshayina usephantsi kakhulu. Ezinye iibhanki eziphambili ezinokwanda okukhulu kwiindawo zokugcinwa ziquka iSingapore, iPoland, iIndiya, iMbindi Mpuma, kunye neminye imimandla.